AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 41c |
18%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 44c |
12%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 32c |
68%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 18c |
71%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 38c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 32c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 34c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 69c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x162f..8d | MM | NO | $4.8K | +35% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$2,136 on $4.8K capital deployed (avg +44.1%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $2.1M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 34c | — | ✓ matched |