AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 3 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 69c |
38%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 84c |
70%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 88c |
75%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 94c |
90%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 87c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c15..db +232% | MM | YES | $5.0K | +8% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$565 on $5.0K capital deployed (avg +11.2%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 94c | $577.6K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 87c | — | ✓ matched |