AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | YES | 94c |
88%
|
|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 72c |
44%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 91c |
72%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 91c |
75%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 92c |
75%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 94c |
90%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 81c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Smart money conviction is thin — only one wallet tracked, entering at the top of the range (89c) with no scaling or averaging behavior. The late, single-point entry signals opportunistic tail-risk pricing rather than strong directional alpha; the wallet is betting the 11% residual probability is mispriced, not that Johnson's odds will meaningfully expand.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xd48a..90 ★ | MM | YES | $12.9K | +2% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,508 on $12.9K capital deployed (avg +11.7%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 91c | $126.3K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 81c | — | ✓ matched |