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Resolves: Dec 2026 5 months left Volume: $2.0M

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

NO
60c
YES
40c

Prediction markets put the probability at 40%: Netanyahu out by end of 2026. Currently, markets are divided (40% YES, 60% NO).

Down from 44% to 40% since 2026-05-02 (-4pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $2.0M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $2.0M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 40c YES.

Trade this market on Polymarket →
On this market: 5/5 AI models agree NO. Our system has been 100% accurate when 4+ models converge — across 12 resolved markets.
MODERATE OUR VERDICT
BUY NO 60c

5/5 models agree on NO, fair value 39c vs market 44c. BUY NO at 44c — models see 5c of upside.

+55% TARGET YIELD
36c
94c
100c
60c
61c
Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

5 of 5 Models Agree: NO

ModelSaysFair Value estimated fair priceConfidence
MATH PIN ModelNO72c—
MATH Compound SignalNO56c—
AI Claude AnalysisNO67c
55%
AI DeepSeek QuantNO72c
65%
AI Kimi MacroNO36c
65%

5 of 5 models estimate NO fair value above market (36–72c vs 56c). DeepSeek Quant leads with 65% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of NO at 61c — market prices it at 56c. 5-point gap supports NO.

3 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Dominant capital sits on NO, betting Netanyahu survives 2026, yet those positions are underwater or marginal from higher entries — the smart-money edge has eroded. The smaller YES cohort is cleanly profitable and pressing the correct direction, suggesting momentum favors YES even as NO retains the larger notional footprint.

WalletCategorySideAmountP&L
0x0c0e..4eMMNO$5.8K-7%
0xde7b..4bMMYES$2.8K+4%
0xeb6f..f0MMNO$1.2K+21%
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All YES Positions Are in Profit

All YES holders sit in profit from a 38c average entry against the current 44c mark, while only half of the NO book (entered 50c-65c) is above water as price has drifted toward YES. The profitable YES cohort provides a firming floor, but the split NO performance signals contested conviction rather than one-sided capitulation.

Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
100% in profit
NO positions
50% in profit

Polymarket: 40c YES — $2.0M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 40c with $2.0M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 39c. 1-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.

PlatformYES PriceVolume
Polymarket40c$2.0M
Our Model39c—
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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
As of July 2026, Polymarket prices this at 40% YES with $2.0M in total volume.

Where can I bet on Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
OddsShift tracks 3 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 39c YES. 5 models agree on direction.