No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?

Prediction markets put the probability at 88%: No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting. Currently, markets see this as likely (88% YES).

What’s Happening

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is widely expected to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% following its 17 September 2026 meeting, with futures markets assigning an 88% probability to no change in the bank’s interest rates after the September meeting. This follows a decisive shift in policy trajectory: the central bank cut rates to 3.75% on 18 December 2025 and again in Q1 2026, according to a Reuters poll of economists conducted in December. Governor Andrew Bailey, who voted to hold at 4.0% in November 2025, signaled that disinflationary progress toward the 2% target could alter his stance, a condition that has since been met as October’s CPI fell to 3.6% from 3.8% [Reuters, Dec 11]. The hold expectation for September is reinforced by a Morningstar analysis from July 2026 noting that sterling has remained resilient and that major UK economic measurements are "way better" than headline narratives suggest, reducing the urgency for further accommodation [Morningstar, Jul 14].

The market’s high conviction in a September hold comes despite lingering upside risks from services inflation, which keeps the possibility of a hike alive. A 27 July 2026 analysis from TechTimes highlighted that the Bank’s Super Thursday meeting—held just weeks before the September decision—would focus on the Monetary Policy Report’s inflation forecast revision, with services inflation remaining the key variable that could force a hawkish pivot. The same report noted that for borrowers with fixed-rate mortgages expiring between now and early 2027, the practical implication is that the forecast revision, not the rate number itself, will signal whether lenders adjust fixed-rate pricing upward [Techtimes, Jul 27]. Historically, when the Bank has held rates for two consecutive meetings after a cutting cycle—as seen in late 2024—the subsequent move was a cut within three months, but the current 88% probability for no change after the September meeting suggests traders are betting this cycle differs, with the next scheduled MPC meetings on 5 November and 17 December 2026 serving as the next potential inflection points [Fidelity, Jul 30].

The September decision will be made against a backdrop of synchronized global central bank activity, with the US Federal Reserve having held rates at its latest meeting just one day before the Bank’s previous decision. This global context matters because UK gilt yields have recently hit G7 highs, a move that bond markets have punished as "fiscal flexibility" concerns emerged—a dynamic that could independently tighten financial conditions and reduce the need for the Bank to act. The 12% probability assigned to a change reflects residual risk from two sources: a potential surprise in the August CPI print (due mid-September) and the Bank’s own forward guidance, which has emphasized data dependence. Fidelity’s July 2026 analysis noted that the next UK rate decision is scheduled for 17 September, followed by meetings on 5 November, 17 December, and 4 February 2027, giving the MPC ample opportunity to adjust if inflation deviates from

Traded on Polymarket — $51K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($51K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 88c YES.