AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | YES | 97c |
94%
|
|
| PIN Model | YES | 97c |
94%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 75c |
50%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 93c |
74%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 94c |
72%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 62c |
48%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 94c |
90%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 96c |
92%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 88c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Both tracked wallets are positioned exclusively on YES, entering between 94c and 97c, signaling strong conviction that the Bank of England will hold rates after the September 2026 meeting. The absence of any NO entries suggests no smart money is willing to fade this outcome even at a 6c potential payout. Their late-stage entries near the ceiling indicate they view the hold as near-certain rather than speculative.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xe841..59 | Smart | YES | $2.2K | +0% | |
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | YES | $2.3K | -2% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$218 on $4.5K capital deployed (avg +4.8%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 94c | $277.7K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 88c | — | ✓ matched |