As of October 15, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will there be no Hormuz agreement?” at 94% YES with $249K traded. 2 tracked wallets hold a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 94% probability to: will there be no hormuz agreement?.
On this market: 5/6 models independently agree YES — rare convergence. Full verdict track record on the accuracy page.
PRO Analysis
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5 of 6 models estimate YES fair value below market (72–98c vs 94c). Gemini Flash leads with 90% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 91c — market prices it at 94c. 3-point gap supports NO.
Why One Model Is Uncertain: Claude Analysis at Nonec — not available tonight (Claude CLI session limit or nightly cap)
2 Active Wallets on This Market
Two wallets are exclusively positioned on YES, entering between 89c and 92c, signaling conviction that a Hormuz agreement will not materialize. Their entries near the top of the range indicate they are willing to pay up for the outcome rather than wait for a pullback. With no NO-side counterparties tracked, smart money is unambiguously leaning toward the market resolving YES.
Both tracked wallets are in profit on YES positions entered at 89c-92c, with the current 94c price giving each a 2-5c gain. No NO entries exist, so there is zero losing-side pressure to cap upside. Profitable YES holders have little incentive to sell into strength, reinforcing support at the 89c-92c entry band.
Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
100%in profit
NO positions
0%in profit
Polymarket: 94c YES — $249K Volume
Polymarket prices YES at 94c with $249K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 91c. 3-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
What are the current odds for Will there be no Hormuz agreement?
As of October 2026, Polymarket prices this at 94% YES with $249K in total volume.
Where can I bet on Will there be no Hormuz agreement?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.
What does smart money say about Will there be no Hormuz agreement?
OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.
What do AI models predict for Will there be no Hormuz agreement?
OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 91c YES. 5 models agree on direction.
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