Prediction markets put the probability at 12%: Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (12% YES). SpaceX shares were down today after Thursday's test flight of Starship was scrubbed because some of its engines failed to start.
Up from 7% to 12% since 2026-04-20 (+5pp)
Traded on Polymarket — $771K Volume
Polymarket prices this at 12c YES with $771K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.