AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 27c |
46%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 6c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 14c |
75%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 12c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money is unanimously positioned NO across 3 tracked wallets with no YES entries logged, a structural directional read rather than mixed conviction. Entries spanning 11c-63c show wallets layered in across the decay curve and rode it to expiry, signaling confidence Rocha stays in office through May 31.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | NO | $24.5K | +79% | |
| 0x44c1..c1 | MM | NO | $5.2K | +39% | |
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | NO | $2.5K | +421% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$121,332 on $32.2K capital deployed (avg +376.8%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 9c | $479.0K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 12c | — | ✓ matched |