As of October 11, 2026, Polymarket prices “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?” at 10% YES with $52K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here, 1 of them tier-1; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 10% probability to: russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by november 30, 2026?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/8 models agree on NO, fair value 12c vs market 10c. 1 tier-1 wallet aligned with models — BUY NO at 10c.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH Bayesian Update | NO | 94c | — |
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 95c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 73c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 92c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 82c | 62% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 90c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 92c | 78% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
7 of 8 models estimate NO fair value below market (73–95c vs 90c). Kimi Macro leads with 78% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 88c — market prices it at 90c. 2-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet entered NO at 93c, a high-conviction short on a ceasefire by November 30, 2026. That entry signals smart money sees the agreement as unlikely and is willing to accept limited upside for a high-probability outcome. With no YES entries from this wallet, positioning reinforces the bearish ceasefire direction.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | NO | $1.0K | -3% |
With YES at 10c, both sides sit at 0% in profit, indicating recent entries near current levels and no embedded gains. The absence of profitable YES holders suggests little accumulation below 10c, so upside support is thin. The dominant NO side at 93c implies the market is heavily priced against a ceasefire, with NO holders needing only a small move to profit.
Polymarket prices YES at 10c with $52K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 12c. 2-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 10c | $52K |
| Our Model | 12c | — |