Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?'?

As of October 2026, prediction markets price this at 5% YES on Polymarket with $1.8M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?'?

OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

95c

YES

As of October 4, 2026, Polymarket prices “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?” at 5% YES with $1.8M traded. 2 tracked wallets hold a position here, 2 of them tier-1; the dominant side is NO.

Prediction markets give a 5% probability to: russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by october 31, 2026?.

Down from 24% to 5% since 2026-07-05 (-19pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $1.8M Volume

Trade this market on Polymarket →

$1.8M traded on this market. OddsShift tracks 2 tracked wallets and runs up to 5 AI models to find where the market is wrong.

PRO Analysis

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HOLD · NO ENTRY AI VERDICT

HOLD

Smart money entered NO at 64c–71c. 100% of NO wallets in profit.

— TARGET YIELD

1 of 2 Wallets Is a Geopolitics Specialist

We tracked 2 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 1 is a geopolitics specialist with 100% win rate. All 1 positioned NO — unanimous.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xc021..a8 ★	Smart	NO	$2.6K	+44%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 64c → now 95c (+44%), $2.6K on NO Activity · 2 events · May 20 → May 31 DatePositionAmountTotal May 20BUYNO64+$1,471$1,471 May 31BUYNO68+$285$1,851 Realized— Unrealized+$823 Total Profit+$823 Wallet Type High-conviction trader with 100% win rate across 1126 resolved bets. Agrees with consensus.
0x5cd5..33 ★	Retail	NO	$5.1K	+30%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 71c → now 95c (+30%), $5.1K on NO Activity · 12 events · May 20 → Sep 05 DatePositionAmountTotal May 20BUYNO64+$568$568 May 23BUYNO68+$515$1,119 May 30BUYNO69+$312$1,447 Jun 02BUYNO68+$69$1,495 Jun 03BUYNO71+$222$1,783 Jun 04BUYNO72+$632$2,441 Jun 16BUYNO63+$19$2,154 Jun 17BUYNO66+$264$2,521 Jun 21BUYNO70+$381$3,055 Sep 01BUYNO91+$160$4,131 Sep 04BUYNO75+$371$3,776 Sep 05BUYNO80+$320$4,347 Realized— Unrealized+$1,316 Total Profit+$1,316 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1858 trades).

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All NO Positions Are in Profit

NO wallets entered at 64c–71c. At current price 5c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

100% in profit

Polymarket: 5c YES — $1.8M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 5c with $1.8M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 5c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	5c	$1.8M
Our Model	5c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

As of October 2026, Polymarket prices this at 5% YES with $1.8M in total volume.

Where can I bet on Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.