As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?” at 18% YES with $1.4M traded. 2 tracked wallets hold a position here, 2 of them tier-1; the dominant side is NO.
Russia and Ukraine held a three-day US-mediated ceasefire in May 2026, but no lasting deal followed, keeping a full agreement unlikely by October 31.
The market on whether a russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by october 31, 2026 will be reached prices the odds at 8% YES, reflecting the collapse of the year's most concrete truce attempt. In May, U.S. President Donald Trump brokered a three-day ceasefire running May 9 to May 11, which both Moscow and Kyiv confirmed on May 8, 2026. That pause, timed to Russia's Victory Day, expired without evolving into broader negotiations, and fighting resumed along the front. Analysts had cautiously framed the truce as a potential opening, with some U.S. experts telling DW that domestic American electoral pressure could push toward a durable settlement. [Reuters, Sep 01]
Momentum stalled through the summer. The Institute for the Study of War reported on June 29, 2026 that Vladimir Putin had implicitly rejected two Ukrainian ceasefire proposals — one covering mutual long-range strikes and another halting hostilities in oblasts outside Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson — underscoring what ISW called his continued intransigence toward good-faith talks. Hawks in Kyiv argue any pause without binding security guarantees simply lets Russia regroup, while Western analysts caution that Moscow's maximalist territorial demands leave little room for a near-term deal. On July 13, the Coalition of the Willing met in Paris and called for an "immediate and complete ceasefire," reiterating that a russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by october 31, or any date, must be paired with enforceable guarantees for Ukraine. [ISW, Jun 30]
Humanitarian exchanges have continued even as combat persists: on July 16, 2026, the sides swapped the remains of over 530 fallen soldiers near the Belarusian border, the 13th such swap since the start of 2026, per Duma lawmaker Shamsail Saraliyev. Whether a russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by october 31, materializes will hinge on the structural gap between Putin's territorial conditions and Kyiv's demand for security guarantees — a divide that repeated diplomacy has not closed. [Moscow Times, Jul 16]
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo8/8 models agree on NO, fair value 19c vs market 29c. 2 tier-1 wallets aligned with models — BUY NO at 29c.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH Bayesian Update | NO | 82c | — |
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 86c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 63c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 90c | 82% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 82c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 82c | 72% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 79c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 85c | 78% |
8 of 8 models estimate NO fair value above market (63–90c vs 71c). Claude Analysis leads with 82% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 81c — market prices it at 71c. 10-point gap supports NO.
Both tracked wallets hold NO positions entered at 64c-69c, signaling coordinated or convergent smart money conviction against a ceasefire by the deadline. Their entries near the lower end of the current NO range suggest they anticipate further YES price declines, reinforcing bearish sentiment on the resolution.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xc021..a8 ★ | Smart | NO | $2.2K | +25% | |
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | NO | $4.1K | +14% |
All tracked NO positions are in profit, with entries between 64c-69c versus the current 71c YES price (implying NO at 71c), suggesting strong unrealized gains for NO holders. The absence of profitable YES positions and the dominant NO side indicate selling pressure on YES, with price support likely weak near current levels unless new catalysts emerge.
Polymarket prices YES at 18c with $1.4M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 19c. 1-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 18c | $1.4M |
| Our Model | 19c | — |