As of October 16, 2026, Polymarket prices “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?” at 10% YES with $1.1M traded. 3 tracked wallets hold a position here, 1 of them tier-1; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 10% probability to: russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31, 2026?.
On this market: 6/8 models independently agree NO — rare convergence. Full verdict track record on the accuracy page.
PRO Analysis
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
6 of 8 models estimate NO fair value below market (73–97c vs 90c). Gemini Flash leads with 85% confidence.
Models estimate fair value at 90c — aligned with market. No edge detected.
Why One Model Is Uncertain: Grok Contrarian at 22c — Consensus and tier-1 wallets heavily price NO at ~90% with only 76 days left, yet this underweights black-swan catalysts like sudden Russ...
3 Active Wallets on This Market
Tracked wallets are overwhelmingly positioned on NO, with entries at 71c-81c signaling conviction that a ceasefire will not occur by the deadline. The absence of profitable YES entries and the tight 12c YES entry range suggest weak, likely retail, longshot buying. Smart money direction is clearly bearish on the ceasefire outcome.
All YES positions are underwater with the market at 10c against entries at 12c, while every NO position is profitable after entering between 71c and 81c. The profitable NO cohort has strong incentive to hold or add, reinforcing downside pressure on YES. With zero YES wallets in profit, there is little bid support to lift the price.
Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
0%in profit
NO positions
100%in profit
Polymarket: 10c YES — $1.1M Volume
Polymarket prices YES at 10c with $1.1M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 10c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.
What are the current odds for Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
As of October 2026, Polymarket prices this at 10% YES with $1.1M in total volume.
Where can I bet on Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.
What does smart money say about Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
OddsShift tracks 3 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.
What do AI models predict for Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 10c YES. 6 models agree on direction.
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