Geopolitics

Resolves: Dec 2026 4 months left Volume: $503K

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?'?

As of September 2026, prediction markets price this at 16% YES on Polymarket with $503K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?'?

OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

Q: What do AI models predict for 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?'?

OddsShift runs mathematical models (Bayesian Update, PIN, Compound Signal) plus independent AI models (Claude, DeepSeek, Grok, Gemini, Kimi) on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 13c YES. 6 models agree on direction. See full model breakdown on the market page.

84c

YES

16c

Prediction markets put the probability at 16%: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (16% YES).

Down from 34% to 16% since 2026-06-03 (-18pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $503K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 16c YES with $503K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

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On this market: 6/6 models independently agree NO — rare convergence. Full verdict track record on the accuracy page.

PRO Analysis

What does smart money think? Get AI verdicts, wallet positioning, signal analysis, and entry targets.

MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 84c

6/6 models agree on NO, fair value 13c vs market 16c. 1 tier-1 wallet aligned with models — BUY NO at 16c.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

6 of 6 Models Agree: NO

Model	Says	Fair Value estimated fair price	Confidence
MATH Bayesian Update	NO	91c	—
MATH PIN Model	NO	95c	—
MATH Compound Signal	NO	70c	—
AI DeepSeek Quant	NO	88c	74%
AI Grok Contrarian	NO	89c	72%
AI Gemini Flash	NO	88c	85%

6 of 6 models estimate NO fair value above market (70–95c vs 84c). Gemini Flash leads with 85% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of NO at 87c — market prices it at 84c. 3-point gap supports NO.

2 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 2 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 71c–76c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x5cd5..33 ★	Retail	NO	$7.7K	+11%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 76c → now 84c (+11%), $7.7K on NO Activity · 2 events · Jul 01 → Jul 04 DatePositionAmountTotal Jul 01BUYNO75+$4,425$4,425 Jul 04BUYNO78+$2,514$7,116 Realized— Unrealized+$770 Total Profit+$770 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 920 trades).
0x0845..6f	MM	NO	$2.5K	+16%
This Market Entered at 71c → now 84c (+16%), $2.5K on NO Activity · 4 events · Jun 20 → Jul 17 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 20BUYNO70+$1,648$1,648 Jun 22BUYNO70+$22$1,671 Jun 27BUYNO74+$808$2,574 Jul 17SELLNO76−$353$2,291 Realized+$22 Unrealized+$399 Total Profit+$421 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1244) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All NO Positions Are in Profit

NO wallets entered at 71c–76c. At current price 16c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

100% in profit

Polymarket: 16c YES — $503K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 16c with $503K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 13c. 3-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	16c	$503K
Our Model	13c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

As of September 2026, Polymarket prices this at 16% YES with $503K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 13c YES. 6 models agree on direction.