How did 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on May 09, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO but the market resolved YES. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: May 09, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $141.3M

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Resolved · MAY 09

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO (6 of 6 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

STRONG RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved YES at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

0 of 6 Models Agreed: YES — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
Bayesian Update	NO	3c	94%
PIN Model	NO	4c	92%
Compound Signal	NO	15c	70%
Claude Analysis	NO	4c	88%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	7c	85%
Gemini Flash	NO	18c	70%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 8c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

7 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Smart money is decisively positioned NO at 94-95c — entries this close to resolution ceiling signal high-confidence bets that no ceasefire materializes by May 31. The YES side at 5-6c reads as cheap optionality / tail hedge rather than directional conviction, reinforcing the NO thesis as the dominant smart-money read.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xde7b..4b	MM	YES	$8.5K	0%
This Market Entered at 6c → now 50c (0%), $8.5K on YES Activity · 3 events · Apr 09 → May 04 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 09BUYYES9+$788$788 Apr 29BUYYES4+$2,102$2,452 May 04BUYYES7+$5,624$9,638 Realized— Unrealized−$9 Total Profit−$9 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (671) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x5cd5..33 ★	MM	NO	$6.2K	-1%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 95c → now 50c (-1%), $6.2K on NO Activity · 3 events · Apr 10 → May 04 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 10BUYNO93+$134$134 Apr 11BUYNO93+$29$163 May 04BUYNO95+$6,089$6,256 Realized— Unrealized−$52 Total Profit−$52 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1816) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xbacd..35	MM	NO	$5.6K	+0%
This Market Entered at 94c → now 50c (+0%), $5.6K on NO Activity · 1 event · May 04 DatePositionAmountTotal May 04BUYNO94+$5,545$5,545 Realized— Unrealized+$16 Total Profit+$16 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1910) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x2e0b..70	MM	NO	$5.4K	+1%
This Market Entered at 95c → now 50c (+1%), $5.4K on NO Activity · 4 events · Apr 11 → May 02 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 11BUYNO94+$6,412$6,412 Apr 28SELLNO96−$6,518$5 Apr 29BUYNO96+$5,457$5,462 May 02BUYNO93+$34$5,303 Realized+$110 Unrealized−$52 Total Profit+$58 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (679) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x0c0e..4e	MM	NO	$5.1K	+0%
This Market Entered at 94c → now 50c (+0%), $5.1K on NO Activity · 1 event · Apr 11 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 11BUYNO94+$5,085$5,085 Realized— Unrealized+$10 Total Profit+$10 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1564) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xfd2b..50	MM	YES	$3.8K	+0%
This Market Entered at 6c → now 50c (+0%), $3.8K on YES Activity · 2 events · Apr 09 → May 04 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 09BUYYES5+$182$182 May 04BUYYES6+$3,581$3,819 Realized— Unrealized+$4 Total Profit+$4 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (454) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x7c3d..6b	MM	YES	$1.1K	+23%
This Market Entered at 5c → now 50c (+23%), $1.1K on YES Activity · 3 events · Apr 23 → May 04 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 23BUYYES5+$443$444 Apr 23SELLYES4−$441$0 May 04BUYYES5+$932$932 Realized−$3 Unrealized+$215 Total Profit+$212 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1284) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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38% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$197,834 on $35.6K capital deployed (avg +555.4%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

38% in profit

NO positions

62% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	6c	$141.3M	100c
AI Consensus	8c	—	× missed

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