As of October 4, 2026, Polymarket prices “Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?” at 8% YES with $57K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here, 1 of them tier-1; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 8% probability to: saudi-houthi ceasefire agreement announced by october 31?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/8 models agree on NO, fair value 9c vs market 8c. 1 tier-1 wallet aligned with models — BUY NO at 8c.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH Bayesian Update | NO | 95c | — |
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 96c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 73c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 93c | 80% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 94c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | ??? | 22c | 41% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 92c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 93c | 72% |
7 of 8 models estimate NO fair value below market (73–96c vs 92c). Claude Analysis leads with 80% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 91c — market prices it at 92c. 1-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet entered NO at 87c, positioning against a ceasefire announcement by October 31. That entry signals conviction that a deal is unlikely within the window, consistent with the dominant NO side. With only one tracked wallet, the signal is thin but directionally aligned with the broader NO profitability.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | NO | $1.2K | +4% |
With YES at 8c, all YES holders are underwater while every NO position is profitable, creating strong incentive to hold or add NO. The absence of profitable YES traders removes any natural bid support, keeping the market pinned near the 8c floor. This asymmetry favors further downside for YES unless a credible ceasefire signal emerges.
Polymarket prices YES at 8c with $57K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 9c. 1-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8c | $57K |
| Our Model | 9c | — |