Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).
Polymarket prices this at 8c YES with $168K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.
6/6 models agree on NO, fair value 11c vs market 8c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 74c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 95c | 88% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 92c | 85% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 85c | 65% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 92c | 80% |
6 of 6 models estimate NO fair value below market (74–98c vs 92c). Claude Analysis leads with 88% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 89c — market prices it at 92c. 3-point gap supports YES.
Smart money positioned exclusively NO at 84c, signaling early conviction that H.R. 22 would not be signed in 2026 — a thesis the market has since validated by repricing YES to single digits. The absence of any YES accumulation, even at deeply discounted levels, suggests tracked wallets see no residual signing pathway worth fading.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x47ab..df | MM | NO | $18.5K | +9% |
The single tracked wallet sits 100% in profit on the NO side, having entered at 84c with YES now collapsed to 8c — a ~76-point unrealized gain. No YES exposure exists among tracked smart money, removing any natural defender of the current price and leaving zero conviction support for a SAVE Act signing.
Polymarket prices YES at 8c with $168K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 11c. 3-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8c | $168K |
| Our Model | 11c | — |