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Resolves: Jan 2027 4 months left Volume: $191K

H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?

NO
94c
YES
6c

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

Down from 8% to 6% since 2026-05-31 (-2pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $191K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 6c YES with $191K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

Trade this market on Polymarket →
On this market: 6/6 models independently agree NO — rare convergence. Full verdict track record on the accuracy page.
PRO Analysis

What does smart money think? Get AI verdicts, wallet positioning, signal analysis, and entry targets.

CONFLICTING OUR VERDICT
HOLD

6/6 models agree on NO, fair value 12c vs market 6c. BUY NO at 6c — models see 6c of upside.

— TARGET YIELD

6 of 6 Models Agree: NO

ModelSaysFair Value estimated fair priceConfidence
MATH PIN ModelNO98c—
MATH Compound SignalNO75c—
AI DeepSeek QuantNO94c
78%
AI Grok ContrarianNO82c
62%
AI Gemini FlashNO88c
75%
AI Kimi MacroNO94c
94%

6 of 6 models estimate NO fair value below market (75–98c vs 94c). Kimi Macro leads with 94% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of NO at 88c — market prices it at 94c. 6-point gap supports YES.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

Smart money is unanimously short: the single tracked wallet bought NO at 84c, signaling early confidence the SAVE Act would not be signed into law in 2026. Their entry near 84c — well before the market fully priced the outcome — reflects a directional read that the bill stalls, and the subsequent slide to 6c YES has validated that thesis. The absence of any YES accumulation reinforces NO as the informed consensus.

WalletCategorySideAmountP&L
0x47ab..dfMMNO$16.9K+11%
See all 87 alpha wallets →  ·  Learn about copy trading →

All NO Positions Are in Profit

The lone tracked wallet sits entirely on NO, entered at 84c and now deep in profit as YES has collapsed to 6c — a ~14-point unrealized gain with 100% of NO exposure green. No YES holder is in profit, and there is no smart-money bid supporting the YES side, leaving price to drift toward zero. Thin positioning (1 wallet) means conviction is concentrated rather than broad.

Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
0% in profit
NO positions
100% in profit

Polymarket: 6c YES — $191K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 6c with $191K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 12c. 6-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.

PlatformYES PriceVolume
Polymarket6c$191K
Our Model12c—
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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?
As of August 2026, Polymarket prices this at 6% YES with $191K in total volume.

Where can I bet on H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?
OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?
OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 12c YES. 6 models agree on direction.