Prediction markets put the probability at 12%: Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (12% YES). Brent oil spot price above $120 in sign that Iran ceasefire can't solve deep disruption.
A prediction market currently assigns a 12% probability to the scenario where silver (SI) hits a high of $120 per ounce by the end of June. This low probability exists despite a powerful surge in the broader commodity complex, with silver futures themselves posting a significant gain of 7.47% to $75.495 on April 10. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett has argued that investors should flock to commodities, including silver, for the next few years as they benefit from ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic turmoil. [Mining.com, Apr 10]
The ambitious target for silver (SI) to hit a high of $120 by end of June would require a near-parabolic rally of approximately 60% from its current level in under three months. While supply tightness in other raw materials is evident—exemplified by Brent crude oil spot prices breaching $124.68 per barrel on April 8—some industry voices are directing attention away from precious metals. The CEO of Vizsla has publicly stated he expects copper to outperform both gold and silver this year, suggesting a potential rotation of investor capital within the sector. [CNBC, Apr 08] [Idnfinancials.com, Apr 09]
Looking ahead, the immediate catalyst for such an extreme move in silver remains unclear, though structural support for commodities persists. Government policies, such as India's newly announced work on an incentive scheme for processing critical minerals, could indirectly influence industrial demand for related metals. The market's current assessment indicates the prospect of silver (SI) hitting a high of $120 by end of June is viewed as a low-probability, high-impact event, contingent on a dramatic escalation of the factors currently driving the sector-wide rally. [Mining.com, Apr 12]
Polymarket prices this at 12c YES with $869K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.
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