AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 3 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 62c |
24%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 38c |
24%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 25c |
65%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | ??? | 45c |
55%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 31c |
40%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 40c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 32c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x22db..0f | Retail | NO | $1.2K | +212% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$2,570 on $1.2K capital deployed (avg +216.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $155.8K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 40c | — | ✓ matched |