Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Prediction markets put the probability at 57%: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15. Currently, markets are divided (57% YES, 43% NO). Strait of Hormuz traffic won't return to normal until end of the year, traders say.

What’s Happening

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed by 90% to 95% compared to pre-war levels, with analysts noting a sharp rise in vessels operating in "dark mode" with transponders switched off when entering and exiting the Persian Gulf. The disruption has rerouted significant energy flows toward Egypt, where Suez Canal traffic jumped nearly 30% as oil shipments shifted to the Red Sea corridor. The dark-tanker phenomenon, once limited to sanctioned cargoes, has spread across mainstream shippers seeking to avoid attack risk, leaving global oil markets with reduced visibility into actual flow volumes. [Oil & Gas 360, Jun 08]

Sentiment around whether strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15 shifted sharply after Iran and Israel launched fresh attacks on Sunday, June 7, breaking April's ceasefire. Odds on Kalshi that traffic would return to normal before August fell from 66% to 21% in two weeks, and a separate contract showed a 66% chance that normal shipping would not resume before January 2027. Traders cited by CNBC pointed to compounding insurance premiums, crew shortages, and the difficulty of restoring confidence even after a ceasefire, suggesting the operational recovery will lag any diplomatic breakthrough by weeks or months. [CNBC, Jun 08]

The picture changed again on June 12, when Pakistan said a U.S.-Iran peace deal had been reached and Iran's semiofficial Mehr News Agency reported a draft agreement would reopen the strait. Brent crude settled at a three-month low, and on June 15 President Donald Trump and Iran's deputy foreign minister confirmed the deal to halt the war and resume Hormuz traffic, pushing Brent down a further 4.02% to $83.82. Whether strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15 now depends on the pace of insurance, military escort, and tanker re-routing decisions in the four-week window following the announcement, with shipowners typically requiring sustained calm before restoring pre-conflict transit volumes. [Global Banking & Finance, Jun 14]

Traded on Polymarket — $113K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 57c YES with $113K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.