AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 32c |
36%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 7c |
82%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
75%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 25c |
60%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 8c |
75%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 14c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money built NO at 86c and has been vindicated by the collapse to 8c, signaling early conviction that Hormuz traffic would not normalize by June 15. The YES side labeled 'dominant' is dominant only in flow, not in quality — tracked wallets that took YES at 10c-12c are pure dip-buyers fading the trend, not informed positioning.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0c0e..4e | MM | NO | $59.5K | +6% | |
| 0xa52b..80 | MM | NO | $2.8K | +0% | |
| 0x162f..8d | MM | YES | $2.7K | -48% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$5,031 on $65.0K capital deployed (avg +7.7%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $12.1M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 14c | — | ✓ matched |