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Resolves: Jun 2026 19 days left Volume: $106K

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

NO
83c
YES
17c

Prediction markets put the probability at 17%: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (17% YES).

Currently at 17%

Traded on Polymarket — $106K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 17c YES with $106K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

Trade this market on Polymarket →
On this market: 5/5 AI models agree NO. Our system has been 100% accurate when 4+ models converge — across 12 resolved markets.
MODERATE OUR VERDICT
BUY NO 83c

5/5 models agree on NO, fair value 17c vs market 17c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.

+14% TARGET YIELD
50c
95c
100c
83c
83c
Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

5 of 5 Models Agree: NO

ModelSaysFair Value estimated fair priceConfidence
MATH PIN ModelNO98c—
MATH Compound SignalNO69c—
AI DeepSeek QuantNO92c
72%
AI Gemini FlashNO75c
60%
AI Kimi MacroNO83c
60%

5 of 5 models estimate NO fair value below market (69–98c vs 83c). DeepSeek Quant leads with 72% confidence.

Models estimate fair value at 83c — aligned with market. No edge detected.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 86c.

WalletCategorySideAmountP&L
0x0c0e..4eMMNO$34.3K-4%
See all 80 alpha wallets →  ·  Learn about copy trading →

No Positions Are Currently in Profit

NO wallets entered at 86c. At current price 17c, none of the NO holders are profitable vs none of the YES holders are profitable. Both sides have similar profitability — no structural edge.

Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
0% in profit
NO positions
0% in profit

Polymarket and Kalshi Disagree by 37 Cents

Significant 37-cent gap: Polymarket at 17c vs Kalshi at 54c. Kalshi traders see a substantially different probability. Our model estimates fair value at 17c.

PlatformYES PriceVolume
Polymarket17c$106K
Kalshi54c—
Our Model17c—
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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 17% YES with $106K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 17c YES. 5 models agree on direction.