AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 3c |
94%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 2c |
95%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 4c |
72%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 7c |
90%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 7c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 47c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x4488..19 ★ | MM | NO | $49.3K | +118% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$56,403 on $49.3K capital deployed (avg +114.4%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $4.5M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 7c | — | ✓ matched |