Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?

Prediction markets put the probability at 70%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May. Currently, markets see this as likely (70% YES). Oil prices edged higher Tuesday as investors parsed fresh signals from U.S.-Iran negotiations.

What’s Happening

Traders on the Kalshi prediction market are currently pricing a 70% probability that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil will hit $110 per barrel during the month of May 2026. This elevated expectation follows a sustained rally in global crude benchmarks, driven largely by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. On April 28, Brent crude topped $111 per barrel as analysts raised their near-term forecasts, citing a stalemate over the Strait of Hormuz and stalled U.S.-Iran diplomacy. The market’s current assessment reflects a consensus that supply disruptions will persist, even as ceasefire talks continue. [Oilprice, Apr 28]

The probability that WTI crude oil (WTI) will hit a high of $110 in May has been bolstered by analyst projections and real-time trading data. On April 29, Yi Ping Liao of Templeton Global Investments stated that oil is seen above $110 in the near term, though he forecast a decline to $85 by year-end due to an uncertain demand outlook. Meanwhile, Kalshi traders on May 1 assigned a greater than 50% chance that U.S. oil prices would exceed $125 per barrel, far surpassing the current closing high of nearly $113 set on April 7. These bets underscore a market bracing for prolonged conflict, with Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates noting that even an immediate end to hostilities would take months to normalize conditions. [CNBC, Apr 29]

Looking ahead, the key variable for whether WTI crude oil (WTI) will hit a high of $110 in May remains the trajectory of U.S.-Iran negotiations and the status of the Strait of Hormuz. On May 1, the Dow opened higher after strong Apple earnings, but Treasury yields steadied following a spike in Brent crude, signaling that energy costs are beginning to weigh on broader financial markets. With Brent already above $111 and Kalshi traders pricing a 63% chance of WTI crossing $120, the next catalyst will be any escalation or de-escalation in the region. Analysts warn that a sustained breach of $110 could pressure central bank policy and corporate margins, though a rapid retreat remains possible if diplomatic breakthroughs occur. [Barron's, May 1]

Traded on Polymarket — $264K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 70c YES with $264K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.