AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 7 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 25c |
50%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 3c |
92%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 5c |
85%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 15c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 5c |
95%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 10c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The lone tracked wallet positioned NO at 91c, betting against a high-profile celebrity wedding within a tight calendar window — a classic structural fade of low-base-rate events. Smart money entry near 91c implies conviction the 5c YES is fairly priced or still slightly rich given remaining time decay. Positioning signals continued downside drift toward 1-2c as June 30 nears.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xed10..e5 | MM | NO | $1.3K | +3% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$126 on $1.3K capital deployed (avg +9.6%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $238.7K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 10c | — | ✓ matched |