Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?'?

As of April 2026, prediction markets price this at 14% YES on Polymarket with $585K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?'?

OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

86c

YES

14c

Prediction markets give a 14% probability to: trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st?.

Currently at 14%

Traded on Polymarket — $585K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 14c YES with $585K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

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Last updated: April 14, 2026, 13:19 UTC

OddsShift analysis: 5 AI models + 2 tracked wallets. Track record: 12/12 correct directional calls across 12 resolved markets.

PRO Analysis

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MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 86c

Smart money entered NO at 74c–83c. 100% of NO wallets in profit.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

2 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 2 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 74c–83c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xbacd..35	MM	NO	$2.3K	+16%
This Market Entered at 74c → now 86c (+16%), $2.3K on NO Track Record 13d on platform · 1954 trades · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1954) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x5cd5..33	MM	NO	$1.0K	+4%
This Market Entered at 83c → now 86c (+4%), $1.0K on NO Track Record 30d on platform · 1830 trades · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1830) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All NO Positions Are in Profit

NO wallets entered at 74c–83c. At current price 14c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

100% in profit

Polymarket: 14c YES — $585K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 14c with $585K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 14c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	14c	$585K
Our Model	14c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st??

As of April 2026, Polymarket prices this at 14% YES with $585K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st??

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st??

OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.