Politics
Resolves: Apr 2026 16 days left Volume: $4.8M

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?

NO
66c
YES
34c

Prediction markets give a 34% probability to: trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 30th?.

Currently at 34%

Traded on Polymarket — $4.8M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $4.8M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 34c YES.

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Last updated: April 14, 2026, 13:19 UTC
Smart money signal: 7 tracked wallets positioned NO with 0.1x conviction. Backed by $4.8M in trading volume.
PRO Analysis

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MODERATE OUR VERDICT
BUY NO 66c

Smart money entered NO at 41c–58c. 100% of NO wallets in profit.

+45% TARGET YIELD
39c
95c
100c
66c
Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

6 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 7 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 6 market makers are providing $63K in liquidity, primarily on NO. NO wallets entered between 41c–58c.

WalletCategorySideAmountP&L
0xbacd..35MMNO$34.0K+29%
0x24c8..e1MMNO$13.3K+36%
0x7c3d..6bMMNO$8.8K+57%
0xc408..75MMYES$3.7K-9%
0xe25b..1bRetailNO$3.5K+13%
0x6bab..92MMNO$1.7K+60%
0x33c2..18MMNO$1.4K+56%
See all 162 tracked wallets →  ·  Learn about copy trading →

All NO Positions Are in Profit

YES wallets entered between 38c, NO wallets at 41c–58c. At current price 34c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.

YES positions
0% in profit
NO positions
100% in profit

Polymarket: 34c YES — $4.8M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 34c with $4.8M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 34c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

PlatformYES PriceVolume
Polymarket34c$4.8M
Our Model34c

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th??
As of April 2026, Polymarket prices this at 34% YES with $4.8M in total volume.
Where can I bet on Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th??
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.
What does smart money say about Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th??
OddsShift tracks 7 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.