AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (3 of 6 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 26c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 5c |
82%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 6c |
70%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 15c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 6c |
94%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money took the NO side at 91c, signaling strong early conviction that López Aliaga would not win, and the 85-point collapse to 6c has fully validated that read. The absence of any tracked YES entries underscores that informed capital never built a contrarian bull case here — directional signal points decisively toward NO resolution.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x011f..22 | MM | NO | $6.4K | +3% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$630 on $6.4K capital deployed (avg +9.9%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $14.8M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | ✓ matched |