AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 26c |
48%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 14c |
70%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 15c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 8c |
92%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 13c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
We tracked 3 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 3 market makers are providing $7K in liquidity, primarily on NO. NO wallets entered between 77c–84c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5188..04 | MM | NO | $3.4K | +19% | |
| 0x162f..8d | MM | NO | $2.1K | +20% | |
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | NO | $1.8K | +10% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,967 on $7.3K capital deployed (avg +26.8%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8c | $1.5M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 13c | — | ✓ matched |