Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?'?

As of April 2026, prediction markets price this at 10% YES on Polymarket with $388K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?'?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

90c

YES

10c

Prediction markets give a 10% probability to: trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 18, 2026?.

Currently at 10%

Traded on Polymarket — $388K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 10c YES with $388K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

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Last updated: April 14, 2026, 13:19 UTC

OddsShift analysis: 5 AI models + 1 tracked wallets. Track record: 12/12 correct directional calls across 12 resolved markets.

PRO Analysis

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MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 90c

Smart money entered NO at 84c. 100% of NO wallets in profit.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 84c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xbacd..35	MM	NO	$1.8K	+6%
This Market Entered at 84c → now 90c (+6%), $1.8K on NO Track Record 13d on platform · 1954 trades · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1954) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All NO Positions Are in Profit

NO wallets entered at 84c. At current price 10c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

100% in profit

Polymarket: 10c YES — $388K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 10c with $388K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 10c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	10c	$388K
Our Model	10c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026??

As of April 2026, Polymarket prices this at 10% YES with $388K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026??

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026??

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.