AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 4 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 28c |
44%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
75%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 18c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 25c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 10c |
80%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 15c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
We tracked 2 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. YES wallets entered between 10c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | YES | $13.4K | -44% | |
| 0x5188..04 | MM | NO | $1.9K | +45% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$12,399 on $15.4K capital deployed (avg -80.7%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $1.5M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 15c | — | ✓ matched |