As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Trump meets with Putin by December 31?” at 85% YES with $219K traded. 2 tracked wallets hold a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets put the probability at 56%: Trump meets with Putin by December 31. Currently, markets are divided (56% YES, 44% NO).
President Donald Trump’s scheduled summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on August 15, 2025 was announced via social media, marking the first formal bilateral meeting between the two leaders since their 2019 G20 encounter in Osaka. The announcement, which cited the need for a Ukraine-focused dialogue, came after Putin’s last U.S. presidential meeting in 2021 with Joe Biden in Geneva. Trump’s declaration that he would host Putin in the “Great State of Alaska” set a concrete date for a high-stakes diplomatic engagement, though the venue and timing drew immediate scrutiny given the ongoing war in Ukraine and the absence of a finalized peace framework. The meeting was framed as a precursor to broader negotiations, with Trump stating further details would follow, but no agenda or participant list was released at the time of the announcement [NPR, Aug 08].
By late December 2025, the diplomatic track had shifted significantly, with Putin reportedly stalling on a 90 percent complete peace deal, according to analysis from the Jamestown Foundation. Putin held an unusual series of meetings with his top military brass in January 2026, approving sustained attacks and instructing commanders to keep the strategic initiative, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy traveled to Europe and then met with Trump in Florida on December 27, 2025. A phone conversation between Putin and Trump occurred before Zelenskyy’s arrival at Mar-a-Lago, but the call was reportedly not entirely satisfactory for the Russian leader, despite an exchange of signals. This sequence of events—culminating in a stalled peace process and a tense phone call—has kept the question of a direct Trump-Putin meeting unresolved, with the window for a face-to-face encounter narrowing as the calendar year closes [Jamestown, Jan 12].
The probability of a Trump-Putin meeting by December 31 stands at 56% in current market assessments, a figure that reflects the procedural and logistical hurdles of arranging a summit amid active hostilities. Notably, the same market assigns a 75% likelihood to Trump meeting Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman within the year, while the Putin meeting is rated lower at 54%, according to a August 26, 2026 report. Meanwhile, Putin’s diplomatic calendar has been dominated by engagements with Chinese President Xi Jinping, including a meeting in Bishkek ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit on August 31, 2026, where the two leaders emphasized their bilateral partnership. This pivot toward Beijing, coupled with visible warmth between Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, suggests Moscow is consolidating alternative alliances, which could complicate any U.S. effort to broker a standalone Trump-Putin meeting before the year’s end [Times of India, Aug 31].
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo5/6 models agree on YES, fair value 87c vs market 85c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 95c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | YES | 88c | 62% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 72c | 41% |
| AI Gemini Flash | YES | 90c | 85% |
| AI Kimi Macro | YES | 92c | 85% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
5 of 6 models estimate YES fair value above market (72–95c vs 85c). Gemini Flash leads with 85% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 87c — market prices it at 85c. 2-point gap supports YES.
Both tracked wallets are positioned exclusively on YES, with entries spanning 52c to 81c, signaling conviction built across a range rather than a single spike. No NO entries among tracked wallets suggests smart money sees little value fading the meeting outcome. The directional consensus is unambiguously bullish, though the thin two-wallet sample limits how much weight to assign to this signal.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xeec5..fe | Retail | YES | $5.0K | +40% | |
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | YES | $1.9K | +3% |
All tracked YES entries (52c-81c) are deep in profit against the 85c mark, with zero NO positions showing gains. The absence of profitable NO holders removes any counter-pressure, and the 52c-81c entry band now acts as a support floor since those holders have no incentive to exit at a loss. Profit-taking risk exists but is muted given the wide margin between entries and current price.
Polymarket prices YES at 85c with $219K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 87c. 2-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 85c | $219K |
| Our Model | 87c | — |