AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 6 of 6 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 3c |
94%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 3c |
95%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 4c |
85%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 10c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 6c |
94%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 6c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money is entirely positioned on NO with no tracked YES entries, a one-sided book that signals conviction the removal scenario is effectively dead. Entries clustered at 94-96c show wallets treating this as a yield-harvest trade on near-certain resolution rather than directional alpha, consistent with status-quo NO farming at the tail.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xed10..e5 ★ | MM | NO | $99.0K | +1% | |
| 0xcaab..dd | MM | NO | $2.8K | -2% | |
| 0xa8af..5e | MM | NO | $1.2K | 0% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$6,655 on $103.0K capital deployed (avg +6.5%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $9.3M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 6c | — | ✓ matched |