As of September 22, 2026, Polymarket prices “Trump renames AI by September 30?” at 30% YES with $79K traded. 2 tracked wallets hold a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 30% probability to: trump renames ai by september 30?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/7 models agree on NO, fair value 20c vs market 30c. BUY NO at 30c — models see 10c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 86c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 63c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 85c | 70% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 78c | 68% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 82c | 65% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 75c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 88c | 78% |
7 of 7 models estimate NO fair value above market (63–88c vs 70c). Kimi Macro leads with 78% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 80c — market prices it at 70c. 10-point gap supports NO.
The two tracked wallets are split, with one entering YES at 45c and the other entering NO at 85c, but the NO side is dominant in size and conviction given the higher entry price. The NO wallet's 85c entry signals strong confidence that Trump will not rename AI by the deadline, effectively pricing a high probability of no event. The YES wallet's 45c entry is now deeply out of the money, suggesting weak or stale bullish positioning rather than smart-money accumulation.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5188..04 | MM | NO | $4.2K | -20% | |
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | YES | $1.3K | -34% |
Both tracked wallets are underwater on their positions, with YES holders down from 45c to 30c and NO holders down from 85c to 70c, meaning neither side has captured profit at current prices. The 30c YES price sits below the 45c YES entry, implying the market has moved against the bullish thesis, while the 85c NO entry is now above the 70c NO price, showing NO buyers overpaid relative to current sentiment. With no profitable cohort, there is little price support from either side, and the dominant NO positioning suggests the market is leaning toward the rename not happening by September 30.
Polymarket prices YES at 30c with $79K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 20c. Significant 10-point gap — model sees NO as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 30c | $79K |
| Our Model | 20c | — |