AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (7 of 7 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 12c |
76%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 36c |
28%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 13c |
72%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 22c |
68%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 22c |
61%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 25c |
75%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 12c |
78%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 20c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Smart money is split but skewed bearish: the NO wallet entered at 84c, signaling strong conviction that Trump will not rename AI by September 30, while the YES wallet entered at 45c and is now deeply underwater. The NO entry at 84c implies the trader saw the event as highly unlikely and was willing to pay a premium for that view, whereas the YES entry at 45c looks like a stale or poorly timed bet. With only two tracked wallets and no profitable positions, the signal favors continued NO dominance unless new YES demand emerges.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5188..04 | MM | NO | $4.5K | -16% | |
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | YES | $1.2K | -38% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$3,021 on $5.8K capital deployed (avg -52.3%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 28c | $1.3M | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 20c | — | × missed |