Prediction markets put the probability at 14%: Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (14% YES). President Donald Trump backed an idea to rename U.S.
Down from 18% to 14% since 2026-04-28 (-4pp)
Traded on Polymarket — $171K Volume
Polymarket prices this at 14c YES with $171K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.
6 of 7 models estimate NO fair value above market (70–98c vs 86c). Kimi Macro leads with 86% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 88c — market prices it at 86c. 2-point gap supports NO.
Why One Model Disagrees: Grok Contrarian dissents at 20c — Despite the market's 14% YES price and mathematical models suggesting a low probability (PIN at 2%, Compound Signal at 30%), there’s a ta...
1 Active Wallets on This Market
Smart money entered NO at 83c — a high-conviction late entry that prices the rename as a near-zero probability novelty bet. The absence of any tracked YES positioning, combined with a willingness to pay 83c for NO, signals the cohort views this as structurally resolved against the rename well before the June 30 deadline.
Single tracked wallet sits entirely on NO with an 83c average entry, now showing 100% in profit as YES trades at 14c (NO at 86c). No YES exposure exists in the tracked cohort, so there is no opposing book to defend the upside and no profitable longs to anchor price support.
Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
0%in profit
NO positions
100%in profit
Polymarket: 14c YES — $171K Volume
Polymarket prices YES at 14c with $171K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 12c. 2-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
What are the current odds for Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?
As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 14% YES with $171K in total volume.
Where can I bet on Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.
What does smart money say about Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?
OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.
What do AI models predict for Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?
OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 12c YES. 6 models agree on direction.