AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 25c |
50%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 2c |
95%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 4c |
78%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 5c |
80%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 12c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 6c |
94%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 8c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The sole tracked wallet positioned exclusively on NO at 91c — a high-conviction entry priced for near-certainty. Smart money treated 'Strait of Trump' rename as a novelty longshot from day one, and the lack of any YES accumulation confirms no informed counter-thesis exists.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xc408..75 | MM | NO | $3.8K | +4% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$377 on $3.8K capital deployed (avg +9.9%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $1.7M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 8c | — | ✓ matched |