AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 3c |
94%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 25c |
50%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 5c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 6c |
85%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 15c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 6c |
94%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money is positioned exclusively on NO at a 95c average, signaling strong conviction that Gabbard remains in her role through April 30. The absence of YES entries among tracked wallets reinforces the directional read: alpha is treating the ouster scenario as a tail risk, not a live thesis. Expect NO to grind toward resolution barring an unexpected headline catalyst.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 | Retail | NO | $1.3K | -1% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$69 on $1.3K capital deployed (avg +5.3%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $159.1K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | ✓ matched |