AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (5 of 6 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 31c |
38%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 12c |
70%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
82%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | ??? | 35c |
60%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 20c |
75%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 18c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Smart money entered NO at 55c when the market was a coin flip, signaling early conviction that Gabbard survives through June 30. The lack of YES tracked positioning combined with a profitable NO anchor at more than 3x current YES price suggests informed flow sees the 18c YES as fair-to-rich, not a mispriced opportunity.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | NO | $1.3K | +53% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,304 on $1.3K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 16c | $160.5K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 18c | — | × missed |