AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 9c |
82%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 31c |
38%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 16c |
72%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 12c |
78%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 25c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 25c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 18c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 19c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money entered NO at 82c — a price level signaling high confidence Atlético does not win on 2026-05-05, consistent with hedge or fade positioning rather than directional upside. The absence of YES accumulation alongside a fully-profitable NO book points to continued suppression of YES bids and a market drifting toward NO resolution.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xde04..37 | Retail | NO | $2.4K | -1% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$509 on $2.4K capital deployed (avg +21.1%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 18c | $3.0M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 19c | — | ✓ matched |