AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (2 of 7 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 67c |
34%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 45c |
10%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 28c |
65%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 28c |
65%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 25c |
70%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | ??? | 48c |
55%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 34c |
65%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 39c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money is unilaterally long YES at 34c with zero NO entries, signaling directional conviction that Atlético is mispriced to the downside. Entry exactly at market price indicates fresh positioning rather than legacy bag — wallet sees 34c as a buy zone, not a fade. Sample size is thin (n=1), so treat as a directional tilt rather than compound signal.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xde04..37 | Retail | YES | $2.1K | +1% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$2,070 on $2.1K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 34c | $8.1M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 39c | — | ✓ matched |