AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (4 of 7 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 79c |
58%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 56c |
12%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 62c |
45%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | ??? | 55c |
40%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 40c |
70%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | ??? | 65c |
60%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 57c |
68%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 59c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money lean is YES-only at 59c entry, just 2c above current price — a modest directional bet on Bayern, not a high-conviction thesis. With only one wallet tracked and entry close to market, the signal is weak: directional bias toward Bayern win, but insufficient agreement to treat as alpha confirmation.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xde04..37 | Retail | YES | $1.5K | -5% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,513 on $1.5K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 57c | $4.6M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 59c | — | × missed |