AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 63c |
26%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 40c |
20%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 32c |
65%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 35c |
65%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 20c |
70%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | ??? | 45c |
60%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 55c |
65%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 41c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
One wallet on YES at exactly current price signals neutral-to-mild positive bias, but sample size is too small to extract directional alpha. The entry-at-market behavior suggests opportunistic rather than conviction positioning. Treat as noise until additional tracked wallets establish a side.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xde04..37 | Retail | YES | $1.0K | -2% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,020 on $1.0K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 26c | $3.8M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 41c | — | ✓ matched |