AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 7 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 5c |
90%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 4c |
92%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 27c |
46%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 7c |
82%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 6c |
78%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 15c |
62%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 10c |
85%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
All three tracked wallets lean NO, with the dominant side betting the US will not announce an end to the Iranian blockade before the August 31 deadline. The 10c YES entries are minimal and unprofitable, signaling no smart-money conviction on the upside, while the profitable NO block reflects a structural status-quo fade consistent with the market's low implied probability. Positioning points firmly toward resolution NO.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | NO | $22.3K | -1% | |
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | NO | $4.5K | +43% | |
| 0x162f..8d | MM | YES | $2.3K | -24% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$2,812 on $29.1K capital deployed (avg +9.7%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8c | $4.9M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | ✓ matched |