As of October 1, 2026, Polymarket prices “US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?” at 13% YES with $385K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here, 1 of them tier-1; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 13% probability to: us announces end of iranian blockade by october 15, 2026?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo8/8 models agree on NO, fair value 12c vs market 13c. 1 tier-1 wallet aligned with models — BUY NO at 13c.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH Bayesian Update | NO | 93c | — |
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 94c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 71c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 92c | 80% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 91c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 78c | 61% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 91c | 88% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 92c | 82% |
8 of 8 models estimate NO fair value above market (71–94c vs 87c). Gemini Flash leads with 88% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 88c — market prices it at 87c. 1-point gap supports NO.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on NO at 90c, signaling conviction that the blockade will not end by October 15, 2026. That entry above the current NO mark suggests the wallet was willing to pay up for the bearish outcome, reinforcing downward pressure on YES. With no YES entries from tracked wallets, smart money is unambiguously aligned against the event occurring.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | NO | $2.7K | -3% |
With YES at 13c, both sides are underwater at current marks, but the NO entries at 90c imply a cost basis above the current NO price of 87c, leaving NO holders slightly negative. No cohort is in profit, so there is no realized support from winning positions; the 13c YES price reflects a low-probability tail with no profitable YES holders to defend it. Price support for NO comes from the absence of profitable YES supply rather than active buying.
Significant 13-cent gap: Polymarket at 13c vs Kalshi at 26c. Kalshi traders see a substantially different probability. Our model estimates fair value at 12c.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 13c | $385K |
| Kalshi | 26c | — |
| Our Model | 12c | — |