Prediction markets put the probability at 52%: US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026. Currently, markets are divided (52% YES, 48% NO).
The market tracking a potential **US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026** has drawn **$9.5 million** in total volume, with **$1.4 million** traded in the last 24 hours, as traders weigh a possible diplomatic off-ramp against ongoing hostilities. The resolution hinges on a formal, public statement from Washington ending its naval blockade on Iranian shipping—a policy that has slowed Hormuz traffic to a crawl since late July. President Donald Trump signaled on **August 2, 2026** that he would halt strikes after "parameters" were reached on a deal to end the war, though no official announcement has followed, leaving the market split at **52% YES / 48% NO** [Scripps News, Aug 02].
The military backdrop remains volatile: on **July 9, 2026**, the US launched new air strikes against Iranian coastline targets, and on **July 20, 2026**, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed they targeted the al-Sakhir air base in Jordan, while two US troops were killed in an Iranian attack. Meanwhile, Yemen’s Houthis announced a Saudi naval blockade, and Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei threatened "unforgettable lessons" on **July 18, 2026**. Despite these escalations, the market’s date range for a possible **US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026** spans from **August 15 to September 30**, reflecting trader uncertainty about whether a ceasefire or a broader deal will precede any formal policy shift [France 24, Jul 20].
The structural factor determining resolution is the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic has slowed further after the US threatened more strikes on **August 14, 2026**, per Reuters. The US insists Iran "does not control" the strait, but the blockade—enforced by carrier strike groups including the USS Abraham Lincoln—has disrupted oil flows and drawn international pressure for a de-escalation. Analysts note that any official **US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026** would likely require a verifiable halt to Iranian attacks on shipping and a reciprocal easing of Houthi and Saudi naval actions, making the timeline contingent on battlefield conditions rather than political posturing alone [Reuters, Aug 14].
Polymarket prices this at 52c YES with $411K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.
Smart money entered NO at 9c–19c. 100% of NO wallets in profit.
We tracked 2 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 9c–19c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x551e..e0 | MM | NO | $4.4K | +152% | |
| 0xcaab..dd | MM | NO | $1.1K | +443% |
NO wallets entered at 9c–19c. At current price 52c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.
Polymarket prices YES at 52c with $411K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 52c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 52c | $411K |
| Our Model | 52c | — |