AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 4c |
92%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 3c |
94%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 26c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 5c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 5c |
82%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 8c |
72%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 5c |
78%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 8c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The single tracked wallet is exclusively positioned on NO at 88c, signaling high conviction that the blockade will not end by September 21, 2026. This smart-money entry near the maximum payout implies the market's 6c YES price is likely overvalued and the true probability is even lower. The absence of any YES entries from tracked wallets reinforces the bearish directional signal.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | NO | $5.9K | +6% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$762 on $5.9K capital deployed (avg +13.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $1.5M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 8c | — | ✓ matched |