AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 6 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 5c |
90%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 3c |
94%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 27c |
46%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 5c |
78%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 15c |
62%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 10c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 12c |
90%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 91c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | NO | $3.7K | +4% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$350 on $3.7K capital deployed (avg +9.3%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $1.8M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | ✓ matched |