Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO but the market resolved YES. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: Jun 15, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $1.2M

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

Q: How did 'US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on Jun 15, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · JUN 15

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO (5 of 5 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved YES at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

5 of 5 Models Agreed: YES — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	98c	96%
Compound Signal	YES	62c	24%
Claude Analysis	YES	86c	72%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	85c	75%
Kimi Macro	YES	85c	80%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 83c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

3 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Smart money entered YES in a tight 70-76c band, signaling consensus that a July 31 agreement/ceasefire extension is the base case rather than a speculative bet. The 'Dominant side: NO' label conflicts with wallet-level YES-only positioning, suggesting the dominant flag reflects broader market liquidity while tracked alpha is directionally long YES into resolution.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x162f..8d	MM	YES	$5.2K	+28%
This Market Entered at 70c → now 50c (+28%), $5.2K on YES Activity · 2 events · Jun 07 → Jun 09 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 07BUYYES64+$10$10 Jun 09BUYYES70+$4,024$4,034 Realized— Unrealized+$1,125 Total Profit+$1,125 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (944) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x5188..04	MM	YES	$5.1K	+3%
This Market Entered at 83c → now 50c (+3%), $5.1K on YES Activity · 6 events · Jun 09 → Jun 13 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 09BUYYES68+$1,519$1,518 Jun 10SELLYES64−$1,321$115 Jun 11BUYYES85+$425$577 Jun 12BUYYES81+$2,753$3,304 Jun 13BUYYES95+$3,505$7,366 Jun 13SELLYES85−$1,743$4,876 Realized−$124 Unrealized+$358 Total Profit+$234 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1522) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xc658..84	MM	YES	$1.9K	+24%
This Market Entered at 72c → now 50c (+24%), $1.9K on YES Activity · 1 event · Jun 11 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 11BUYYES72+$1,566$1,566 Realized— Unrealized+$381 Total Profit+$381 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1760) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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100% of Tracked YES Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$4,001 on $12.2K capital deployed (avg +32.7%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% no exposure

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	90c	$1.2M	100c
AI Consensus	83c	—	✓ matched

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