AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved YES at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 48c |
4%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 62c |
55%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 73c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 73c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 71c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
One wallet positioned YES at 62c signals an early bet on a diplomatic agreement materializing before June 19, but conviction is unconfirmed at single-wallet depth. The dominant NO flow against this lone YES entry suggests broader smart money is fading the agreement timeline, leaving the YES side exposed without multi-wallet validation.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | YES | $2.3K | +8% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,392 on $2.3K capital deployed (avg +60.9%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 71c | $231.3K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 71c | — | ✓ matched |