US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?

Q: What are the current odds for 'US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?'?

As of June 2026, prediction markets price this at 10% YES on Polymarket with $129K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?'?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

90c

YES

10c

Prediction markets give a 10% probability to: us announces new iran agreement/ceasefire extension by june 9?.

Currently at 10%

Traded on Polymarket — $129K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 10c YES with $129K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

Trade this market on Polymarket →

OddsShift analysis: 5 AI models + 1 tracked wallets. Track record: 12/12 correct directional calls across 12 resolved markets.

MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 90c

Smart money entered NO at 89c. 100% of NO wallets in profit.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 89c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x162f..8d	MM	NO	$1.1K	+1%
This Market Entered at 89c → now 90c (+1%), $1.1K on NO Activity · 1 event · Jun 04 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 04BUYNO89+$1,105$1,105 Realized— Unrealized+$6 Total Profit+$6 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (433) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All NO Positions Are in Profit

NO wallets entered at 89c. At current price 10c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

100% in profit

Polymarket: 10c YES — $129K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 10c with $129K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 10c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	10c	$129K
Our Model	10c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?

As of June 2026, Polymarket prices this at 10% YES with $129K in total volume.

Where can I bet on US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.