AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 4 of 6 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 36c |
28%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 17c |
65%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 10c |
70%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | ??? | 45c |
60%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 17c |
60%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 37c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. YES wallets entered between 18c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | YES | $1.0K | -4% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$4,675 on $1.0K capital deployed (avg +467.5%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 17c | $285.4K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 37c | — | × missed |