US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?

As of April 2026, prediction markets price this at 20% YES on Polymarket with $65K in total trading volume.

80c

YES

20c

Prediction markets put the probability at 20%: US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (20% YES).

Down from 27% to 20% since 2026-04-14 (-7pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $65K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($65K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 20c YES.

Last updated: April 27, 2026, 22:06 UTC

OddsShift analysis: 5 AI models + 162 tracked wallets. Track record: 12/12 correct directional calls across 12 resolved markets.

PRO Analysis

What does smart money think? Get AI verdicts, wallet positioning, signal analysis, and entry targets.

OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models and tracks 166 smart money wallets. Get BUY/SELL verdicts, entry targets, wallet positions, and P&L data.

These Economics markets have full AI verdicts, smart money tracking, and 5-model analysis:

As of April 2026, Polymarket prices this at 20% YES with $65K in total volume.

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.