Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO but the market resolved YES. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: May 20, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $166.5K

US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?

Q: How did 'US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on May 20, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · MAY 20

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO (5 of 5 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (5 of 5 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.

Stop Loss Target Final

0 of 5 Models Agreed: YES — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	NO	13c	74%
Compound Signal	NO	35c	30%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	13c	72%
Gemini Flash	NO	25c	65%
Kimi Macro	NO	24c	60%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 22c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 50c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xeec5..fe	Retail	NO	$1.0K	+35%
This Market Entered at 50c → now 50c (+35%), $1.0K on NO Activity · 2 events · May 12 → May 13 DatePositionAmountTotal May 12BUYNO49+$638$638 May 13BUYNO71+$36$963 Realized— Unrealized+$340 Total Profit+$340 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1528 trades).

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

0% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,014 on $1.0K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

100% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	26c	$166.5K	100c
AI Consensus	22c	—	× missed

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