As of October 9, 2026, Polymarket prices “US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?” at 72% YES with $75K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 72% probability to: us-iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo5/6 models agree on NO, fair value 18c vs market 72c. BUY NO at 72c — models see 54c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 70c | 55% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 72c | 62% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 85c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 85c | 65% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
5 of 6 models estimate NO fair value above market (70–98c vs 28c). Gemini Flash leads with 75% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 82c — market prices it at 28c. 54-point gap supports NO.
The single tracked wallet is exclusively positioned NO at 27c, a high-conviction bet against a ceasefire lasting through the midterms. With no YES entries to offset it, this concentrated smart-money signal points toward further downside in the YES price.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x12d6..a8 | Smart | NO | $1.3K | +2% |
With YES at 72c, every YES holder is underwater while the sole NO position entered at 27c sits on a 45c paper gain. That profitable NO cohort has strong incentive to hold or add, creating resistance near current levels and capping upside until the price falls enough to flip YES holders into profit.
Polymarket prices YES at 72c with $75K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 18c. Significant 54-point gap — model sees NO as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 72c | $75K |
| Our Model | 18c | — |