As of September 29, 2026, Polymarket prices “US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?” at 8% YES with $109K traded. 2 tracked wallets hold a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 8% probability to: us-iran final nuclear deal by november 30, 2026?.
On this market: 7/7 models independently agree NO — rare convergence. Full verdict track record on the accuracy page.
PRO Analysis
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7 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (73–98c vs 92c). Claude Analysis leads with 88% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 90c — market prices it at 92c. 2-point gap supports YES.
2 Active Wallets on This Market
Both tracked wallets are positioned exclusively on NO, entering between 87c and 92c, signaling conviction that a final US-Iran nuclear deal will not materialize by November 30, 2026. Their entries near the top of the NO range indicate they see the remaining probability as overpriced rather than a value buy, reinforcing the dominant bearish stance on YES.
With YES at 8c, every YES holder is underwater, while half of NO positions entered at 87c-92c are now in profit as the market has drifted toward the NO side. The absence of profitable YES entries removes any incentive to defend the 8c level, leaving thin support and asymmetric downside for further YES decay.
Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
0%in profit
NO positions
100%in profit
Polymarket: 8c YES — $109K Volume
Polymarket prices YES at 8c with $109K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 10c. 2-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
What are the current odds for US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?
As of September 2026, Polymarket prices this at 8% YES with $109K in total volume.
Where can I bet on US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.
What does smart money say about US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?
OddsShift tracks 2 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.
What do AI models predict for US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?
OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 10c YES. 7 models agree on direction.
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