AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 29c |
42%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 8c |
82%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 2c |
92%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 14c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money is one-directional here: the lone tracked wallet is positioned NO at 74c and never touched YES, signaling early conviction that a final US-Iran nuclear deal fails to close by Sept 30. The entry timing and sustained profitability point to a structural fade of diplomatic-deadline optimism rather than a reactive trade. Thin sample (1 wallet) limits confidence, but the positioning aligns cleanly with the market's drift toward NO.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0c0e..4e | MM | NO | $69.7K | +5% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$7,928 on $69.7K capital deployed (avg +11.4%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $2.4M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | ✓ matched |