AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 8 of 8 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 4c |
92%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 4c |
92%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 26c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 6c |
85%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 5c |
78%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 12c |
68%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 6c |
88%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 7c |
90%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 9c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The lone tracked wallet is positioned entirely on NO at 98c — a classic status-quo fade betting no formal US-Iran Hormuz deal materializes by August 31. That entry signals smart money treats the agreement as extremely unlikely, consistent with the 7c YES market price and structural NO edge on short-dated diplomatic outcomes.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | NO | $1.2K | -3% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$29 on $1.2K capital deployed (avg +2.5%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $366.2K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 9c | — | ✓ matched |