US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 57%: US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31. Currently, markets are divided (57% YES, 43% NO). Search for Symbols, analysts, keywords Log in Join the community built by investors, for investors.

What’s Happening

The diplomatic trajectory toward a **us-iran hormuz agreement by august 31** shifted dramatically on August 4, 2026, when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that Washington could finalize a deal with Tehran to reopen the strategic waterway "today or tomorrow," citing the need to stabilize global energy prices. The following day, Iranian officials announced that an agreement had been reached with Oman to facilitate the reopening, a move that sent U.S. crude futures lower for a third consecutive session on August 5. These statements follow President Donald Trump's claim on August 2 that "perimeters of a deal" had been agreed upon, including the "Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT," though Iran's Fars news agency dismissed his demands as a "wish list." [Globalnation, Aug 04] [Seekingalpha, Aug 05]

The market's 57% probability of a **us-iran hormuz agreement by august 31** reflects a fragile ceasefire that has already collapsed once. On July 7, 2026, President Trump declared the ceasefire "over" after fresh strikes, yet the same announcement referenced a prior agreement under which Iran would "make arrangements using its best efforts" to allow safe passage for commercial vessels for 60 days, including de-mining operations. The BBC reported on May 31 that Trump was seeking edits to a draft deal that included a 60-day cessation of violence, a framework for nuclear negotiations, and potential sanctions relief unlocking billions in frozen Iranian assets. Analysts caution that the gap between announced "perimeters" and a signed, verifiable accord remains wide, particularly given Iran's repeated characterization of U.S. terms as unrealistic. [DW, Jul 07] [BBC, May 31]

The structural factor determining whether the **us-iran hormuz agreement by august 31** materializes is the physical reopening of the strait, which remains blocked by mines and military obstacles. While Treasury Secretary Bessent framed the deal as imminent on August 4, the CNBC report on August 2 noted that Iran and regional neighbors asked the U.S. to hold off attacks, suggesting ongoing back-channel negotiations. The August 5 Oman-mediated announcement indicates a potential third-party verification mechanism, but no official U.S. confirmation of a signed document has been issued. Energy markets are watching closely: a confirmed reopening would likely trigger a sharp drop in crude prices, while a breakdown could reignite the conflict that began with the blockade. The 57% probability reflects genuine momentum but also the historical pattern of last-minute collapses in U.S.-Iran talks. [CNBC, Aug 02] [Seekingalpha, Aug 05]

Traded on Polymarket — $50K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($50K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 57c YES.